Reserve Bank of India · · Revised 1 series
India September 2026 forecaster survey: repo rate seen at 5.75% by December
Forecasters polled by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in September 2026 expect its policy repo rate to rise to 5.75% by December 2026, from 5.50% now. In July they expected that only by June 2027.
A data update from FactIQ, written from Reserve Bank of India figures. What is FactIQ?
Key figures
- Median forecast for India's repo rate, December 2026, September 2026 survey
- 5.75%July survey had 5.25% for December 20262026-12-312027-09-30Survey of Professional Forecasters median forecast for the end-period policy repo rate, round 102, September 2026
- India 91-day Treasury bill cut-off yield, October 28, 2026
- 5.93%up from 5.73% on October 14 and 5.21% on September 9
- India total foreign exchange reserves, week to October 23, 2026
- $719.7bndown $1.27bn on the week; Sep 4 peak was $785.7bn2025-11-282026-10-23Total Foreign Exchange Reserves in Millions of US Dollars
- Median forecast for consumer price inflation, October–December 2026, September 2026 survey
- 5.9%was 5.685% in the July survey2026-09-302027-09-30Median forecast for headline inflation based on the Combined Consumer Price Index in round 102 of the Survey of Professional Forecasters, published in September 2026
Forecasters now expect one more rate hike, and sooner
The RBI's Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) asks economists for their outlook on the economy. In round 102, run in September 2026, the median forecast for the end-period repo rate is 5.75% from December 2026. It stays flat through September 2027. The repo rate is the RBI's main policy rate, and it guides borrowing costs across the economy. In the July round (101), the median had the rate at 5.25% in December 2026 and reaching 5.75% only by June 2027. After the October hike the repo rate is 5.50%. The Standing Deposit Facility (SDF) rate is 5.25% and the Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) rate is 5.75%. These two rates set the floor and ceiling of the policy corridor.
Forecasts for inflation, oil and growth all moved up
Median forecasts from round 101 to round 102:
- Consumer price index (CPI) inflation: 5.9% for October–December 2026 (was 5.685%) and 5.5% for January–March 2027 (was 5.3%).
- Indian-basket crude oil: $91 a barrel for end-December 2026 (was $80) and $90 for end-March 2027 (was $75).
- Gross domestic product (GDP) growth: 6.8% for October–December 2026 (was 6.445%) and 7.2% for July–September 2026 (was 6.5%).
- Rupee: 96.0 per dollar at end-December 2026 (unchanged) and 96.875 for June 2027 (was 96.5).
Short-term rates have moved above the top of the corridor
The 91-day Treasury bill (short-term government debt) cut-off yield rose to 5.93% on October 28. It was 5.73% on October 14 and 5.21% on September 9. That is above the 5.75% MSF rate. The 364-day yield reached 6.69%, up from 5.91% in early September. The overnight call rate was 5.68% on October 28. Over October 23–25, banks borrowed ₹283–320bn (billion rupees) a day from the MSF. At the same time they placed about ₹2.0tn (trillion rupees) a day in the SDF.
Reserves fell in the latest week because of gold
Total foreign exchange reserves fell $1.27bn to $719.7bn in the week to October 23. They are now about $66bn below the September 4 peak of $785.7bn. Gold fell $2.65bn to $103.2bn. Foreign currency assets rose $1.36bn to $593.2bn. The RBI reference rate was 95.25 rupees per dollar on October 30, compared with 96.61 on October 9.
Source: Reserve Bank of India. See all RBI data in FactIQ.