India forecasters see 5.75% repo rate by December 2026 and higher inflation

Forecasters now expect a higher policy rate by December

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) surveys professional forecasters on the economy. The repo rate is the rate at which the RBI lends to banks. It sets the base level for borrowing costs across the economy. In the latest survey round, the median forecast for the repo rate at the end of next quarter (December 2026) is 5.75%. It was 5.25% in each of the previous three rounds. The mean forecast is 5.62%.

Inflation forecasts have risen in each of the last two rounds

• The consumer price index (CPI) measures inflation in household prices. The mean CPI forecast for next quarter is 5.85%. That is up from 4.89% last round and 4.12% the round before.
• The wholesale price index (WPI) tracks prices at the wholesale level. The mean WPI forecast for next quarter is 9.43%, up from 8.84% last round.
• The mean CPI forecast for a year ahead is 4.54%.

Growth forecasts are holding up

The mean forecast for gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the current quarter is 7.17%, up from 6.41% last round. GDP is the total output of the economy. For next quarter, the mean forecast is 6.82%.

Oil and the rupee are still expected to stay costly and weak

• The mean forecast for the Indian crude oil basket next quarter is $93.2 per barrel. That is down from $103.5 last round but still well above the $64–67 range of late 2025.
• Forecasters expect the rupee at a mean ₹95.79 per dollar at the end of next quarter, against ₹88.3 a year ago.
• The RBI reference rate for the rupee was 95.37 per dollar on October 29. That was its weakest since October 12, compared with 94.70 on October 22. The rupee has given back part of its gain from 96.77 on October 8.
• Year-ahead mean forecasts put the 10-year government bond yield at 7.09% and the current account deficit at $45.4 billion.