US Treasury yields edge up on Nov 3, 2026 election day; 10-year at 4.95%
The 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.95% on November 3, 2026, from 4.91%, on midterm election day. Yields remain well below mid-October levels, and the federal funds effective rate stayed at 3.88%.
A data update from FactIQ, written from Federal Reserve Board figures. What is FactIQ?
Key figures
- US 10-year Treasury yield, November 3, 2026
- 4.95%up from 4.91% on November 2; 5.19% on October 142026-08-262026-11-03Market yield on U.S. Treasury securities at 10-year constant maturity, quoted on investment basis
- US 2-year Treasury yield, November 3, 2026
- 4.61%up from 4.59% on November 22026-08-262026-11-03Market yield on U.S. Treasury securities at 2-year constant maturity, quoted on investment basis
- Federal funds effective rate, November 3, 2026
- 3.88%unchanged every day since the September 17 hike from 3.63%2026-08-262026-11-03Federal funds effective rate
- US 30-year Treasury yield, November 3, 2026
- 5.32%up from 5.28% on November 22026-08-262026-11-03Market yield on U.S. Treasury securities at 30-year constant maturity, quoted on investment basis
Longer-term yields rose a little more than short-term yields on election day
Treasury yields are the interest rates the US government pays to borrow. They set the base for many other loan rates. The Federal Reserve's H.15 release of selected interest rates shows these changes from November 2 to November 3:
- 2-year: 4.59% to 4.61%
- 5-year: 4.70% to 4.74%
- 10-year: 4.91% to 4.95%
- 30-year: 5.28% to 5.32%
The shortest maturities barely moved. The 1-month yield slipped to 4.03%, and the 3-month yield held at 4.21%. The gap between the 2-year and 10-year yields is about 34 basis points (hundredths of a percentage point). The 10-year inflation-indexed yield rose from 2.62% to 2.65%. That puts the 10-year breakeven inflation rate at about 2.30%. The breakeven rate is the gap between ordinary and inflation-indexed yields, and markets use it to gauge expected inflation.
Yields are still well below mid-October levels
The 10-year yield was 5.19% on October 14. It fell 17 basis points on October 22 alone, from 5.13% to 4.96%. Investors moved into safe assets that day during a selloff in artificial intelligence (AI) stocks. The 2-year yield is down about 21 basis points over the same period.
Federal Reserve policy rates have not changed since September
The federal funds effective rate is the average rate banks charge each other for overnight loans, and the Federal Reserve steers it to set policy. It has been 3.88% every day since the September 17 hike, when it rose from 3.63%. The primary credit rate, which the Federal Reserve charges banks for short-term loans, is 4.00%. The bank prime rate is 7.00%. These rates fit a 3.75–4.00% target range after the October 28 decision to hold rates.
The 90-day AA financial commercial paper rate tracks short-term borrowing costs for highly rated financial firms. It jumped to 4.38% at month-end on October 30, then fell back to 4.09–4.10%. That is a normal month-end effect. These data end on November 3, before the election results were known.
Source: Federal Reserve Board. See all FRB data in FactIQ.