US September 2026 PCE inflation rises to 3.65% as energy prices jump

Energy prices drove the September increase

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index measures the prices US households pay for goods and services. It is a broad gauge of consumer inflation. The figures come from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

• The headline PCE price index stood at 132.257 in September, up 0.49% from August.
• The price index for PCE energy goods and services rose 5.4% in the month.
• Prices for gasoline and other energy goods rose 9.2%.
• Electricity and gas prices were roughly flat, at +0.13%. Fuel was the main source of the rise.

Core inflation also picked up and stays above 3%

Core PCE excludes food and energy, whose prices swing more than other prices. The core index stood at 130.902 in September. It rose 0.32% from August and 3.12% from a year earlier, up from 3.03% in August. The Federal Reserve meets this week, and core inflation is still above 3%. That matters for US interest rates, the dollar and the outlook for oil prices.

Spending rose in dollars but stalled after inflation

• Nominal PCE, which measures spending in current dollars, rose 0.51% to $22.45tn (trillion dollars, at an annual rate).
• Real PCE, which adjusts spending for inflation, was essentially flat at +0.02%. It had risen +0.55% in August.
• Nominal spending on durable goods, such as cars and appliances, fell 0.56%.

Consumer spending was strong across the third quarter as a whole

Real PCE grew about 3.8% at an annualised rate in the third quarter (Q3), compared with the second quarter. This supports the view of a strong consumer behind the third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures released the same day.