US fiscal 2026 deficit widens to $1.992T; 10-year Treasury yield falls to 5.09%
The US federal deficit reached $1.992 trillion ($1.992T) in fiscal year 2026, up from $1.775T, as spending outpaced revenue. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 5.09% on Oct 16.
A data update from FactIQ, written from U.S. Department of the Treasury figures. What is FactIQ?
Key figures
- US federal deficit, fiscal year 2026
- $1.992Tup from $1.775T in fiscal year 20252022-10-312026-09-30Federal Budget Deficit (+) / Surplus (-) (Fiscal Year-to-Date)
- US 10-year Treasury par yield, Oct 16
- 5.09%down from 5.31% on Oct 52026-08-112026-10-19Treasury Par Yield: 10 Yr
- Total federal outlays, fiscal year 2026
- $7.396Tup from $7.010T, about 5.5%2022-10-312026-09-30Total Federal Outlays (Fiscal Year-to-Date)
- Total public debt outstanding, Oct 15
- $40.388Tabout $216B above $40.172T on Sept 302026-08-102026-10-16Total Public Debt Outstanding (Debt to the Penny)
Spending grew faster than revenue in fiscal year 2026
The federal fiscal year 2026 ended on Sept 30. The deficit is the gap between what the government spends and what it collects. It was $1.992 trillion ($1.992T), about $217 billion ($217B) wider than fiscal year 2025's $1.775T.- Total federal outlays (spending) rose to $7.396T from $7.010T, up about 5.5%.
- Total federal receipts (revenue) rose to $5.403T from $5.235T, up about 3.2%.
September's deficit reflects unusually low spending a year earlier
September 2026 showed a $26.9B deficit. September 2025 showed a $197.9B surplus. Outlays in September 2025 were unusually low at $345.7B, compared with $584.8B this September. Receipts were roughly flat, at $557.9B versus $543.7B.Long-term Treasury yields have fallen from their early-October highs
Treasury par yields show the return investors require to lend to the US government. They influence borrowing costs across the economy.- 10-year: 5.09% on Oct 16, down from 5.31% on Oct 5
- 30-year: 5.43%, down from 5.67% on Oct 7
- 5-year: 4.89%, down from 5.06%
- 2-year: 4.74%, a smaller decline. It rose to 4.82% on Oct 14, the day the hot September consumer price index (CPI) was released, then eased.
The largest one-day drop came on Oct 15. On that day the 10-year and 30-year yields each fell 9 basis points (bp, hundredths of a percentage point). The gap between the 2-year and 10-year yields narrowed to about 35bp from about 47bp on Oct 5. Bill yields barely moved: the 3-month was 4.26% and the 1.5-month was 4.14%. The 2-year yield is still nearly 50bp above the 3-month yield, so markets still expect rate hikes.
Public debt rose after the fiscal year ended
Total public debt outstanding was $40.388T on Oct 15, about $216B above the Sept 30 level of $40.172T. Of the total, $32.54T is held by the public and $7.85T is held within the government.Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury. See all TREAS data in FactIQ.
About FactIQ and these updates
- What FactIQ is. FactIQ is a database of official statistics from government agencies, central banks and international organisations in the US, China, India, Europe and elsewhere. AI assistants such as Claude and ChatGPT connect to it to look up the exact figures and cite the agency that published them. It also holds what companies report in their filings and say on their earnings calls.
- How an update is made. When U.S. Department of the Treasury publishes new figures, FactIQ loads them and an AI model writes a short summary of what changed. Before it is published, code checks that every number in the summary matches FactIQ's record of the release, and a second review checks that nothing is overstated. Values that look like errors in the source data are left out.
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