US earnings calls, October 13-19, 2026: M&T and Citizens assume a December rate hike

Two banks build a December rate hike into their forecasts

The chief financial officer of M&T Bank said its forecast for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026 assumes one rate hike in December 2026. M&T expects taxable-equivalent net interest income (NII), the income from loans and securities minus the cost of deposits and borrowing, of $1.83 billion to $1.85 billion in that quarter. It also expects a net interest margin (NIM), the gap between what a bank earns on its assets and pays for its funding, in the mid-3.60s. M&T said its NIM was 3.65% in the third quarter of fiscal year 2026, down 5 basis points from the prior quarter.

The chief financial officer of Citizens Financial Group said its outlook assumes the Federal Reserve raises its target rate by 25 basis points in December 2026. First Horizon's chief financial officer said the prior-day forward curve indicated 1.5 rate increases in the second half of fiscal year 2026.

Other regional banks gave margin and return targets

• Regions Financial said it expects its net interest margin to exit the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026 at around 3.70%.
• First Horizon said its net interest margin was 3.48% in the third quarter of fiscal year 2026. It expects its mortgage portfolio sale to increase 2027 earnings per share by around 4%.
• Zions said it believes it can reach a mid-3s net interest margin in 2027.
• Citizens said it sees a clear path to a 16%-18% return on tangible common equity (ROTCE), a measure of profit relative to shareholders' equity, by the end of fiscal year 2027.

Companies outside banking reported results and updated plans

• Alcoa said net income attributable to Alcoa was $483 million in the third quarter of fiscal year 2026, up from $407 million in the prior quarter. The chief executive said aluminum prices are currently close to $3,000 per ton.
• J.B. Hunt said total revenue increased 20% in the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 versus the prior-year period.
• Wise said it now expects net revenue growth for fiscal year 2027 in the upper half of the 15%-20% range on a constant-currency basis.
• Domino's said it now expects 125–150 net new stores in the United States in fiscal year 2026.
• Wipro said its IT services revenue was $2.61 billion in the second quarter of fiscal year 2027, flat sequentially in constant currency.
• VinFast said it delivered 70,085 electric four-wheelers in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, up 20% quarter-over-quarter.