US earnings calls, October 13-19 2026: banks plan for a December rate hike

M&T Bank and Citizens Financial Group said their forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2026 assume a US rate hike in December 2026. Citizens assumes a 25 basis point rise by the Federal Reserve.

An update from FactIQ, written from company statements in earnings calls of companies listed in the United States. What is FactIQ?

Key figures

M&T Bank, net interest margin, third quarter of fiscal year 2026

3.65%stated by the chief financial officer; down 5 basis points from the prior quarter

Citizens Financial Group, assumed Federal Reserve rate rise in December 2026

25 basis pointsstated by the chief financial officer; assumption in the fourth-quarter 2026 outlook

J.B. Hunt Transport Services, total revenue growth, third quarter of fiscal year 2026, year on year

20%stated by the chief financial officer; versus the prior-year period

Alcoa, net income attributable to Alcoa, third quarter of fiscal year 2026

$483 millionstated by the chief financial officer; up from $407 million in the prior quarter

Regional banks gave outlooks for their lending margins

Several banks discussed their net interest margin (NIM), the gap between what a bank earns on loans and other assets and what it pays on deposits and other funding.

M&T Bank said its NIM was 3.65% in the third quarter of fiscal year 2026, down 5 basis points from the prior quarter. The chief financial officer said M&T expects a NIM in the mid-3.60s in the fourth quarter. The chief financial officer said this forecast assumes one rate hike in December 2026.
Regions Financial said it expects its NIM to exit the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026 at around 3.70%.
First Horizon said its NIM was 3.48% in the third quarter of fiscal year 2026, in line with expectations.
Zions Bancorporation said it believes it can reach a mid-3s NIM in 2027.

Banks set loan and profit targets into 2027

M&T Bank expects average loans of $145 billion to $146 billion in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026.
Regions Financial expects average loan growth for fiscal year 2026 to be up low single digits versus 2025.
Citizens Financial Group said it sees a clear path to a 16%-18% target for return on tangible common equity (ROTCE), a measure of profit relative to shareholders' capital, by the end of fiscal year 2027.

Several companies outside banking reported growth

J.B. Hunt Transport Services said its total revenue increased 20% in the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 versus the prior-year period.
Alcoa said its net income attributable to Alcoa was $483 million in the third quarter of fiscal year 2026, up from $407 million in the prior quarter.
VinFast said it delivered 70,085 electric four-wheelers in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, up 96% year-over-year.
Wise said its active customer base increased 20% year-on-year to 12.5 million in the second quarter of fiscal year 2027.

Domino's, Wipro and W.R. Berkley expect slower parts of their business

Domino's Pizza now expects 125–150 net new United States stores in fiscal year 2026. It now expects international same-store sales to be approximately flat.
Wipro guides to information technology (IT) services revenue growth of -1.5% to +0.5% from the prior quarter in the third quarter of fiscal year 2027, in constant currency, which excludes exchange-rate effects.
W.R. Berkley expects its reinsurance business to shrink at a rate of 10% to 20% for the foreseeable future.

About FactIQ and these updates

What FactIQ is. FactIQ is a database of official statistics from government agencies, central banks and international organisations in the US, China, India, Europe and elsewhere. AI assistants such as Claude and ChatGPT connect to it to look up the exact figures and cite the agency that published them. It also holds what companies report in their filings and say on their earnings calls.

How an update is made. FactIQ reads each new earnings call or filing and stores the statements with numbers, each with the exact quote it came from. An AI model then writes a short summary of those statements. Before it is published, code checks that every number in the summary matches a stored statement, and a second review checks that nothing is overstated or presented as fact when the company only expects it.

What this is not. The figures are what each company said or filed. FactIQ does not rate companies or recommend shares.