Census Bureau · · Revised 336 series
US business applications, October 2026: down 6.0% as retail filings drop 22%
Seasonally adjusted US business applications fell 6.0% to 501,609 in October, mostly because retail filings dropped 22%. Filings that plan to pay wages fell to 34,131, the lowest in two years of data.
A data update from FactIQ, written from Census Bureau figures. What is FactIQ?
Key figures
- US business applications, all industries, October 2026, seasonally adjusted
- 501,609down 6.0% from 533,637 in September2022-11-012026-10-01Seasonally Adjusted Number of Business Applications in the United States Across All Industries
- US retail business applications, October 2026
- 89,511down from 114,819 in September (-22%)2022-11-012026-10-01Monthly Seasonally Adjusted Business Applications in U.S. Retail Trade
- US business applications with planned wages, October 2026
- 34,131down 4.5% on the month and 8% from a year earlier; lowest in two years of data2022-11-012026-10-01Seasonally Adjusted Business Applications with Planned Wages in the United States
- US high-propensity business applications, October 2026
- 144,314down 2.0% on the month, up about 3% on a year earlier2022-11-012026-10-01Seasonally Adjusted High-Propensity Business Applications in the United States Across All Industries
Retail filings caused most of the October decline
Business applications count new filings to start a business, so they give an early signal of business creation. According to the Census Business Formation Statistics, applications across all industries fell to 501,609 in October from 533,637 in September. The figures are seasonally adjusted, which removes normal seasonal swings. October's total was about 1% below October 2025.
- Retail applications dropped to 89,511 from 114,819.
- That accounts for roughly 25k of the 32k overall decline.
- Retail high-propensity applications barely moved, at 21,069 compared with 20,995. High-propensity applications are filings judged likely to become businesses with payroll.
The retail drop therefore came from filings unlikely to become employers.
Signs of future hiring were mixed and partly weaker
- High-propensity applications slipped 2.0% to 144,314. They are still up about 3% on a year earlier.
- Applications that list planned wages fell 4.5% to 34,131. This is the lowest level in the two years of data reviewed. They are down 8% from a year earlier and well below the 44k–48k pace of late 2024 and early 2025.
- Applications from corporations held flat at 41,137.
- Projected business formations within four quarters dipped to 27,867. That is still about 7% above October 2025.
Finance filings stay high, and earlier months were revised
High-propensity applications in finance and insurance jumped from about 4,067 in June to about 5,950 from July onward. They were 5,647 in October.
About 21 months of history were revised. Headline totals barely changed: July's total is now 575,501, compared with 576,264 before. Agriculture was revised up, with July's unadjusted count rising from 3,796 to 4,209. Applications with no industry code were revised down by a similar amount, with May falling from 13,928 to 13,432. This pattern is consistent with applications being assigned to an industry after they are filed.
Source: Census Bureau. See all CENSUS data in FactIQ.