US 10-year Treasury yield rises to 5.15% on 19 October as real yields climb
The 10-year US Treasury yield rose 6 basis points (bp, hundredths of a percentage point) to 5.15% on 19 October, driven by real yields. That partly reverses last week's drop. The Fed's policy rate held at 3.88%.
A data update from FactIQ, written from Federal Reserve Board figures. What is FactIQ?
Key figures
- US 10-year Treasury yield, 19 October 2026
- 5.15%up from 5.09%, a rise of 6 basis points2026-08-112026-10-19Market yield on U.S. Treasury securities at 10-year constant maturity, quoted on investment basis
- US 10-year inflation-indexed Treasury yield, 19 October 2026
- 2.80%up 6 basis points2026-08-112026-10-19Market yield on U.S. Treasury securities at 10-year constant maturity, quoted on investment basis, inflation-indexed
- US 2-year Treasury yield, 19 October 2026
- 4.77%up 3 basis points2026-08-112026-10-19Market yield on U.S. Treasury securities at 2-year constant maturity, quoted on investment basis
- Effective federal funds rate, 19 October 2026
- 3.88%unchanged since the 17 September rate rise from 3.63%2026-08-112026-10-19Federal funds effective rate
Inflation-adjusted yields drove the whole rise
The Federal Reserve's H.15 release of selected interest rates shows the 10-year Treasury yield rose from 5.09% to 5.15% on Monday 19 October. That was a rise of 6 basis points (bp, hundredths of a percentage point). This yield sets the base for many long-term borrowing costs. The 10-year inflation-indexed yield also rose 6bp, to 2.80%. It measures the return investors get after inflation, also called the real yield. Breakeven inflation stayed near 2.35%. It is the gap between the regular and inflation-indexed yields, and it tracks expected inflation. Oil-driven inflation fears did not cause the move.Long-term yields rose more than short-term yields, partly undoing last week's fall
- 2-year: 4.77% (+3bp)
- 5-year: 4.94% (+5bp)
- 30-year: up from 5.43% to 5.48%
The gap between the 2-year and 10-year yields widened to 38bp from 35bp. Last week the 10-year yield fell from a 5.31% close on 5 October to 5.09% on 16 October. The 5.09% close was its lowest in the period covered. The 10-year yield remains about 16bp below its early-October high.
Bill yields above the Fed's policy rates suggest markets expect more rate rises
The 1-month Treasury yield was 4.11% and the 3-month yield was 4.27%. Both are well above the effective federal funds rate (3.88%), the overnight rate banks charge each other. They are also above the primary credit rate (4.00%), which the Fed charges banks for short-term loans.Policy rates have not changed since the September rate rise
The Fed raised rates on 17 September. Fed funds went up from 3.63% to 3.88% and primary credit from 3.75% to 4.00%. Both have stayed at those levels since. The bank prime rate, which banks charge on short-term business loans, is 7.00%.Source: Federal Reserve Board. See all FRB data in FactIQ.
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