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TREAS·U.S. Department of the Treasury·

US 10-year Treasury yield falls to 4.96% on Oct 22, first close below 5% since Sep 22

The 10-year US Treasury yield, a benchmark for borrowing costs, fell 17 basis points (hundredths of a percentage point) to 4.96% on October 22. It was the first close below 5% since September 22.

A data update from FactIQ, written from U.S. Department of the Treasury figures. What is FactIQ?

Key figures

US 10-year Treasury par yield, October 22
4.96%down 17 basis points from 5.13%; first close below 5% since September 222026-08-142026-10-22Treasury Par Yield: 10 Yr
Total foreign holdings of US Treasury securities, August
$9,331.7bnup $83bn from a revised $9,248.4bn in July2022-09-302026-08-31Foreign Holdings of U.S. Treasury Securities: Grand Total
China (mainland) holdings of US Treasury securities, August
$590.7bndown $27.3bn; $731.4bn in June 20252022-09-302026-08-31Foreign Holdings of U.S. Treasury Securities: China, Mainland
Japan holdings of US Treasury securities, August
$1,068.3bndown $35.6bn, fourth straight drop from $1,209.9bn in April2022-09-302026-08-31Foreign Holdings of U.S. Treasury Securities: Japan

The October 22 fall was the largest one-day move in 60 trading sessions

The 10-year par yield fell from 5.13% to 4.96%, down 17 basis points (hundredths of a percentage point). The par yield is the interest rate a newly issued Treasury bond would pay if it sold at face value. No daily move in either direction was larger in the last 60 sessions. The 10-year yield is now 35 basis points below its October 5 high of 5.31%. Longer-dated yields fell by similar amounts:
  • 2-year: down 16 basis points to 4.65%
  • 5-year: down 17 basis points to 4.78%
  • 30-year: down 13 basis points to 5.29%

The gap between the 2-year and 10-year yields barely changed, at about 31 basis points.

Short-term bill yields barely moved, so the rally reflected demand for safety rather than rate-cut bets

The 3-month bill yield slipped 3 basis points to 4.22%. The 1-month yield rose 2 basis points to 4.11%.

Foreign holdings rose in August, while China and Japan cut theirs again

The US Treasury's monthly data on foreign holdings of Treasury securities, published October 16, put the August total at $9,331.7bn (billion dollars). That is up $83bn from a revised $9,248.4bn in July.
  • China (mainland) fell $27.3bn to $590.7bn. It held $731.4bn in June 2025.
  • Japan fell $35.6bn to $1,068.3bn. That was its fourth straight monthly drop, down from $1,209.9bn in April.
  • India rose $17.1bn to $219.7bn. That was its third straight gain, up from $181.3bn in May.
  • Canada rose $38.3bn to $464.6bn, and the UK rose to $1,009.5bn. Belgium rose to $490.5bn and Luxembourg to $448.2bn. Both are custody centres, which often hold securities for owners based elsewhere.

Foreign governments and central banks sold bills and bought longer debt

Foreign official holdings fell $17.5bn to $3,755.6bn. Their Treasury bill holdings fell $42.2bn to $312.2bn, down from $457.3bn in April. Their holdings of notes and bonds rose $24.6bn to $3,443.4bn. Separately, total US public debt stood at $40.41tn (trillion dollars) on October 21.

Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury. See all TREAS data in FactIQ.

About FactIQ and these updates

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  • How an update is made. When U.S. Department of the Treasury publishes new figures, FactIQ loads them and an AI model writes a short summary of what changed. Before it is published, code checks that every number in the summary matches FactIQ's record of the release, and a second review checks that nothing is overstated. Values that look like errors in the source data are left out.
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