Energy Information Administration · · Revised 2,800 series
EIA November 2026 outlook: 2027 diesel price forecast raised to 502.5¢ a gallon
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) now expects diesel to average 502.5 cents a gallon (¢/gal) in 2027, up from 448.9¢. It made the change even though it sees Brent crude falling to $75 by December 2027.
A data update from FactIQ, written from Energy Information Administration figures. What is FactIQ?
Key figures
- US retail diesel price forecast, 2027 average
- 502.5¢/galup from 448.9¢1990-01-012027-01-01Annual U.S. Average Diesel Fuel Retail Price Including Taxes
- US retail diesel price forecast, December 2027
- 471.6¢up from 410.7¢2024-01-012027-12-01U.S. Average Monthly Diesel Fuel Retail Price Including Taxes
- US commercial crude oil stocks excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, end of 2026 forecast
- 403.8 mbdown from 432.3 mb1990-01-012027-01-01Annual Crude Oil Inventory Excluding Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)
- Brent crude oil price forecast, November 2026 average
- $104falling to $75 by December 20272024-01-012027-12-01Brent Crude Oil Spot Price (Monthly)
EIA raised its fuel price forecasts again
EIA's November Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) is its monthly forecast for US energy markets. Diesel fuels most trucks and farm machinery, so its price feeds into transport costs. The new outlook raised the retail diesel price, in cents per gallon (¢/gal):
- December 2027: 471.6¢, up from 410.7¢.
- November 2026: near 610¢.
- Diesel stays above $5 a gallon through April 2027, when it is 509¢.
- Jet fuel in 2027: 345¢, up from 297¢.
- Wholesale heating oil in 2027: 352¢, up from 305¢.
EIA expects oil prices to fall through 2027
Brent is the main international crude oil price. EIA puts it at an average of $104 a barrel in November and $99 in December. After that, it falls by $2 a month to $75 by December 2027. That path sits well above the spot price, which fell below $90 on November 10.
US crude stocks are now expected to be lower
EIA cut its forecast for commercial crude stocks, which leave out the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), the government's emergency oil store. It sees 403.8 million barrels (mb) at the end of 2026, down from 432.3 mb, and 443.8 mb at the end of 2027, down from 475.6 mb. The SPR release now runs into January 2027. It is 0.42 million barrels a day (mb/d) in November, 0.67 in December and 0.23 in January. EIA then has the reserve refilling at about 0.55 mb/d from July 2027.
Saudi supply, gas, coal and growth were also revised
- Saudi supply in September: 9.65 mb/d, up from 9.29, against 7.45 in August. October is 10.57 mb/d.
- Shale gas output in September: 95.6 billion cubic feet a day (bcf/d), up from 92.9.
- Gas in storage at the end of 2026: 3,320 bcf, up from 3,240. Henry Hub, the main US gas price, is about $2.66 in November.
- Coal burned by power plants: 384.4 million short tons in 2026 and 361.6 million in 2027, down from 390.8 million and 372.1 million.
- Real gross domestic product (GDP), the inflation-adjusted value of US output, was revised up back through 2023. Implied growth rises to about 2.4% in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027, from about 2.1% and 2.6%.
Source: Energy Information Administration. See all EIA data in FactIQ.